Thursday, February 23, 2012

Is ECRI changing its recession call?

Here's an announcement on the ECRI website.

Will Achuthan back off on the recession call? If he did then surely clients would have heard it first but I haven't heard any leaks from the blogosphere. On the hand hand, it does say "updated outlook".

Stay tuned.

Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. ("Qwest"). This article is prepared by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity. As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest.

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Structuredsettlement said...

The two primary proponents of the view that a new recession is beginning have been ECRI and John Hussman. As of now, we can say that Hussman's own metric invalidates his recession call, and that ECRI's initial recession call was also inaccurate.

While I have great respect for ECRI, when they made their initial recession call in September 2011, I wondered if they had misinterpreted a transient if violent downturn in manufacturing and consumer confidence, due mainly to the debt ceiling debacle and the consequent downgrading of US bonds, for typical short term leading indicators of recession. We can now say that it indeed appears to have been the case.

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Tiho said...

No actually he didn't back off. He doesn't flip flop, being bearish in October and bullish in February... like some others! *rolls eyes*