Friday, June 3, 2011

Where is the next bubble going to be?

Most recently, Paul Kedrosky wrote the following about investment bubbles:
The whole point of venture capital is to create and ride bubbles. To pretend otherwise is hopelessly silly, not to mention naive.

[On the subject of LinkedIn and the existence of a technology bubble:] And we are in the middle of major transformations, mostly driven by technology. It’s not surprising that public and private markets are excited about it all — there is much to be excited about, from mobile, to location technologies, to social technologies, to exa-data and on and on. The only thing that would be surprising is if all this didn’t get markets and investors jazzed.
Beyond following goings and comings of VC investment flows, how can we spot the next bubble? Qwest Investment Management just published my monthly article that considers the question of Where is the bubble going to be? If you are looking for a bubble, here is a chart of the mother of all bubbles:

Yup, it's a picture of human population growth. Bubbles will emerge from the story of rising human population, rising demand and human ingenuity. In the article, I examine the question of the next investment bubble and identify five possible candidates as investment themes:
  • Agriculture: It's the story of rising demand from newly affluent emerging market economies.
  • Water: We are running out of fresh water, which is essential for human survival.
  • Alternative Energy: The appearance of Peak Oil is likely to hasten the search for alternative energy sources.
  • Biotech: There will likely be a raft of life extension technology commercilization opportunities in the next ten years.
  • Nanotech: Nanotechnology advances are still in the lab but there are some mind blowing applications and truly transformative technologies to be seen.
More details here.

1 comment:

keithpiccirillo said...

Wonderful Malthusian catastrophe thematic post, and Paul Ehrlich has done some good work on population. Ray Kurzweil's exponential growth and law of accelerating returns thesis in tech and nano offers some hope.
We are a bit far from talking about Phoenix candidates but we do need to get a POMO bounce pretty soon.