Wednesday, March 10, 2010

9 women can't have a baby in a month

I have written about the Peak Oil thesis before, Gregor Macdonald over at his site has a new post entitled The Myth of Energy Breakthroughs that gives a great perspective on that viewpoint [emphasis mine]:

It’s common among those who sell the idea of energy breakthrough to invoke electronic or digital adoption narratives. Breakthroughs in medicine, in electronic networks, and in other intellectual achievement distribute more easily upon existing systems. This is why I continue to believe that many (not all) in Cleantech Venture dont’ really understand the scale of our energy problem. Or, having understood the scale of our energy problem, many apply adoption pathways learned from other systems–that simply don’t translate to energy, and the built environment.

If the world is to transition from oil to another energy source, the amount of time and scale of the process is enormous. Gregor Macdonald went on to a chart that shows how long it to nuclear to reach levels of electrical generation by hydro.

Simply put, nine women can't have a baby in a single month.

2 comments:

keithpiccirillo said...

Shouldn't the analogy be "A woman can't have 9 babies in a month?"
Start to gather your "Phoenix" list again, any week/month now, Hulbert's retest could happen.

kat said...

Right, at the end the hopes and BS will have to step aside for us to see the facts.

Keith: I agree with the 9 women/ month analogy... Its about time and inefficiency of contribution of few small systems, what is needed is one big and strong complex that will carry the baby into the birth.
New baby is whole new system/environment and it is not composed of 9 embryos.

On the other side - I think this 9 women experiment is necessary - we need one that will be able to carry the baby full term because the old one is in "menopause" and we need to find out which of one. So supporting all of them makes sense at this point.

The only problem is the point of view at this 9 women that is full of hopes.